Everyday Homicides in the nation Drop Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The average figure of everyday murders each month in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative figures. But, security experts have warned that murder data may not point to enhanced national stability.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had in these months is extremely significant,” the President remarked, adding that in November the lowest amount of murders were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's highly militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts urged caution that relying on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is notably true considering the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for estimating the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it could obscure days when there were notably spiking levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

But despite these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of security. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.