Everyday Killings in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Statistics

The average number of everyday murders monthly in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh government data. However, security experts have advised that murder numbers could fail to signal better national safety.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had during these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an seemingly steeper decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the President declared: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

However, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is notably true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of everyday killings was also concerning because it may hide days when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters protested in the capital and across the country to express their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to create a picture of security. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas said.