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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However the current race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still